Big companies, especially those who introduce the first of a new product to market, rule for a long time until they fall into complacency and are over taken by their competition. In the 70's and 80's, IBM's near-monopoly on everything computer related was unassailable. People feared or envied IBM for their total dominance of a wide range of computers from desktops to sprawling mainframes that required their own building. But, oh how they have fallen! Is fallen, even a son of the morning!
How did it happen? A series of poor decisions and a failed strategy. If there's any one event, it was when Microsoft and IBM disagreed so significantly on the direction of the next generation operating system (OS/2), that they split and Microsoft implemented their vision as the Windows operating system. Since that moment, Microsoft's star has ascended while IBM's has declined.
Well, it's about to happen again. I'm talking about Windows 8. The beginning of the end for Microsoft. They're about to be eclipsed by Google and Apple, and this time they're not likely to recover.
The current situation is that MS pretty much owns most of what you'd call the "enterprise" space. Businesses that rely on the Windows support and infrastructure to execute their daily operations. They're the new IBM! They own the data center and business desktop. The "consumer" space they share with Google and Apple. For their own personal computing needs, people are increasingly using their smart phones and tablets/iPads . Apple and Google don't yet own the consumer space but they have a big chunk of it and that percentage is increasing.
In response, MS decided to come up with Windows Phone, a program that originally appeared on the ill-fated Zune music player. And they adapted it for a smart phone. It's hasn't sold very well, probably because people are happy with the phones they have. Here's where it get surreal. Microsoft decides to use the Windows Phone software and fit it onto to their desktop OS, replacing the desktop that has "just worked" for at least 25 years. It's an unholy mix of keyboard, mouse and touch and an abandoned desktop metaphor. I wish I could go into details of how awful it really is but that would be too much. I'll just include some favorite links:
A deep dive into Windows 8 Consumer Preview
Microsoft Is In Serious Danger Of Flying Straight Into A Mountain With Windows 8
Why Windows 8 could be the next Vista
8 Things We Hate About Windows 8
The Seven Things I Hate About Windows 8
I use a 27" monitor and find Metro (MS' name for their new desktop) annoying. It insists on displaying every application in full screen mode (there are no windows under this version of Windows) which is overwhelming. The start button is gone, replaced with "tiles". A tile is sort of like a desktop icon but less flexible. Not everyone is going to like Metro is all I can say. But the real deal killer is that now MS is asking all the people who write applications for Windows to write Metro style apps. To support touch as well as mouse and keyboard. If you don't, you'll be forced to use the somewhat broken desktop mode, something similar to the current Windows 7 desktop but without a Start button. And all the annoying screen hot spots that is part of Windows 8.
Apple took the right approach and keeps their phone and desktop version of iOS separate. You can't run a pixel-twiddling program like Photoshop without the accuracy of a mouse. Which is why there are a lot of programs that will never appear on a tablet. Not without a radical re-write. In other words, MS is asking everyone (living or dead) who ever wrote a program for the PC, to re-write it for touch and Metro, a unimaginably huge task. And application support is what makes MS king. Why break everything you ever worked for? So everything that's been before is either broken or hurting.
The other deal breaker is the training issue. Nothing in Metro is intuitive, it's difficult to learn. One thing that always riles me about a new release of Windows is how all the settings are moved around. Every new version puts the network settings, the security settings, all those little twiddly things in different places. I wouldn't mind if there were some reason for it but I can seldom see it. Windows 8 takes this obfuscation of settings to a whole new level. People are going to puke on Metro not because it doesn't work but because they can't figure it out.
All of this this could have been avoided if they kept the traditional desktop and let you launch the Metro environment from there. But they want to be done with it forever, just like the old DOS command line. Just so they could chase after the tablet and smart phone market. It's a textbook case of if it ain't broken, don't fix it. The only thing that was broken was their market share. Nobody was asking for this!
MS's lack of judgement is also revealed in another, smaller aspect of Windows 8. Starting with Office 2007, MS replaced a huge mashed up confusion of command bars, drop down lists, menus and icons with the infamous ribbon. The ribbon is a huge but better organized mash up of tabs, command bars, drop down lists, menus and icons. Because they hate us, they dropped the old interface and forced everyone to use the ribbon. It was met with mixed success but people have finally stopped complaining about it. So now they're adding it to a lot of Windows utilities like Notepad and Explorer. Maybe that's why they think forcing everyone to use Metro out of the box will be a great idea too. But do you see anyone else using the ribbon? I don't and MS has been promoting and supporting it vigorously.
Windows 8 is going to be a hard one to recover from. Much worse than Vista. The performance and compatibility problems the new security model introduced gradually got better over time. People will learn the Metro interface over time but rewriting every application to support touch is probably never going to happen. I'd like to say that over time, MS will improve the Metro interface but I'm loosing confidence in their judgement and fear they might double down on their mistake instead.
Windows 8 is a solution in need of a problem. Zune failed, Windows Phone is loosing millions and I see the same thing ahead for Windows tablets. There wasn't anything wrong with Zune or Windows Phone, it just wasn't better than anyone else's. MS withstood years of losses on the XBox but even if they are prepared to do that for their phones and tablets, success is not guaranteed and they have formidable competition. Even if they survive all that, ruining their enterprise business to chase after a misbegotten vision they will not survive. IBM had to abandon OS/2 for much smaller mistakes.
Maybe my children will see IBM buy out the shell of what's left of Microsoft in the years to come. But the irony of that will probably escape them.
Update: It's 12/2012 and Win 8 has been out for awhile now. Here's a few more links:
Microsoft Has Failed
Microsoft's Problems
Sunday, July 22, 2012
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Invasive Species
I spend a lot of time outdoors in Maryland hiking through the many bike trails and footpaths that crisscross the county. After a while, you start recognizing the plants and trees and flowers. Having an Audobon or Peterson guide to WildFlowers or Trees is also very helpful.
I have a sister who studied Forestry at the University of Toronto back in our younger days. In order to graduate, you need to pass Dendrology 101. Dendrology is the identification of trees. For the final exam, your professor takes you out to Earnest Thomas Seaton Park in the wintertime and you must identify 100 different species of trees. No leaves, you may only use the tree bark and general shape for identification. If you flunk, you have to keep taking it year after year until you finally pass or wash out.
So my sister was highly motivated for a time to identify trees. I would occasionally visit her and we couldn't walk far down the street without her going over to a tree and asking me to identify it. Especially if it was something unusual, like a doubly compound Kentucky Coffee Bean tree. Or an elm tree with an asymmetrical leaf base. Most of the elm trees in Canada were wiped out years ago by the Dutch Elm Disease so seeing an live elm tree there is a rare treat. As a result I gained an appreciation for dendrology and actually learned something too. Thanks, Patty!
Most identification systems depend on a "key", simply a set of rules, things to look for to narrow down the choices. You go from general to specific until you reach the level you want. It works for trees, ducks, insects, whatever you have. And there's no Master Key, you can make your own key, whatever you find that works for you.
When I moved from Canada to Maryland, I made an effort to familiarize myself with all the different trees and flowers mushrooms and insects. In comparison to Maryland, Canada is a bleak wasteland of monotony and it was great to see all the new species of ...well, everything!
It wasn't too long before I came across a curious sort of...attitude...I guess is the word. Some species of plants and insects and animals are unloved and branded as dreaded "Invasive Species". Species that didn't come over on the Mayflower but instead are breaking down our borders and starting gang wars in our forests and meadows. And the Invasive Species are strong and aggressive and just destroying the fine and dainty balance that has maintained for so long.
The picture above features the horrendous Japanese Stilt Grass, another "Bio-Bully" that's pushing around the native species, beating them down and taking their lunch money. But, the thing is, I love Japanese Stiltgrass and look forward to this time of year when it spreads it lush, deep green blades over the otherwise barren forest floor. And it's fun to walk through.
See all those delicate green vines wrapped around the tree (and almost everything else)? The one with the triangular leaves? That's called mile-a-minute weed. Botanists call it Persicaria perfoliata. Calling it a weed is actually very unkind, and "a mile a minute" is a gross exaggeration. It can grow maybe 6 inches on a hot summer day. It's quite prolific, kind of like the stilt grass. But see how beautiful and green it looks?
Awhile ago, the head of NASA was being interviewed and on the subject of global warming he said that nobody really knows what the proper temperature of the earth should be and he wasn't so sure why people were worrying if it went up or down. Likewise, I don't think people should presume to know what the proper balance of life in the world ought to be. I say, let the strong survive and everything will balance out.
I have a sister who studied Forestry at the University of Toronto back in our younger days. In order to graduate, you need to pass Dendrology 101. Dendrology is the identification of trees. For the final exam, your professor takes you out to Earnest Thomas Seaton Park in the wintertime and you must identify 100 different species of trees. No leaves, you may only use the tree bark and general shape for identification. If you flunk, you have to keep taking it year after year until you finally pass or wash out.
So my sister was highly motivated for a time to identify trees. I would occasionally visit her and we couldn't walk far down the street without her going over to a tree and asking me to identify it. Especially if it was something unusual, like a doubly compound Kentucky Coffee Bean tree. Or an elm tree with an asymmetrical leaf base. Most of the elm trees in Canada were wiped out years ago by the Dutch Elm Disease so seeing an live elm tree there is a rare treat. As a result I gained an appreciation for dendrology and actually learned something too. Thanks, Patty!
Most identification systems depend on a "key", simply a set of rules, things to look for to narrow down the choices. You go from general to specific until you reach the level you want. It works for trees, ducks, insects, whatever you have. And there's no Master Key, you can make your own key, whatever you find that works for you.
When I moved from Canada to Maryland, I made an effort to familiarize myself with all the different trees and flowers mushrooms and insects. In comparison to Maryland, Canada is a bleak wasteland of monotony and it was great to see all the new species of ...well, everything!
It wasn't too long before I came across a curious sort of...attitude...I guess is the word. Some species of plants and insects and animals are unloved and branded as dreaded "Invasive Species". Species that didn't come over on the Mayflower but instead are breaking down our borders and starting gang wars in our forests and meadows. And the Invasive Species are strong and aggressive and just destroying the fine and dainty balance that has maintained for so long.
The picture above features the horrendous Japanese Stilt Grass, another "Bio-Bully" that's pushing around the native species, beating them down and taking their lunch money. But, the thing is, I love Japanese Stiltgrass and look forward to this time of year when it spreads it lush, deep green blades over the otherwise barren forest floor. And it's fun to walk through.
See all those delicate green vines wrapped around the tree (and almost everything else)? The one with the triangular leaves? That's called mile-a-minute weed. Botanists call it Persicaria perfoliata. Calling it a weed is actually very unkind, and "a mile a minute" is a gross exaggeration. It can grow maybe 6 inches on a hot summer day. It's quite prolific, kind of like the stilt grass. But see how beautiful and green it looks?
Awhile ago, the head of NASA was being interviewed and on the subject of global warming he said that nobody really knows what the proper temperature of the earth should be and he wasn't so sure why people were worrying if it went up or down. Likewise, I don't think people should presume to know what the proper balance of life in the world ought to be. I say, let the strong survive and everything will balance out.
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